The initial stage of statistical research is statistical observation - a scientifically organized collection of information about the studied socio-economic processes or phenomena. The received data are source material for subsequent stages of statistical research. Characteristic of this stage is the method of mass observations. Also at this stage, the goals and objectives of observation are formed, research programs are developed, an organized plan for its implementation is drawn up, an object (some statistical set in which the studied socio-economic phenomena or processes take place) and units of observation (a constituent element of the object, which is the carrier of signs, subject to registration). The result of statistical observation is to obtain data characterizing each unit of observation. The purpose of the study is to obtain reliable information to identify patterns in the development of phenomena. Therefore, the results of statistical observations are the initial statistical material. These results must be processed in a certain way in order to identify statistical data. Such processing is the next stage of statistical research after observation and is a summary of the initial data to obtain generalizing characteristics of the process or phenomenon under study, carried out using the method of groupings and tables. The observation program is a list of features to be recorded in the observation process. The quality of the collected information depends on the program.
In order to correctly compose an observation program, it is necessary to clearly understand the tasks of examining a particular phenomenon or process.
The following requirements are presented to the program of statistical observation: 1. the program must contain essential features that directly characterize the phenomenon under study, its type, main features, properties 2. questions should be accurate, unambiguous, and easy to understand 3. it is necessary to determine not only the composition of the questions, but also their sequence clarification of the collected data 5. To ensure the uniformity of the information received from each reporting unit, the program is drawn up in the form of a document called a statistical form. A statistical form is a document of a single sample containing a program and the results of an observation. Mandatory element statistical form is the title and address parts. There are 2 statistical form systems: individual (card) and list. The individual form provides for recording answers to the program's questions about only one unit of observation, the list form - about several units. In addition to the form, an instruction is filled out that determines the procedure for conducting observation and filling out the reporting form, census form, and questionnaire. The form and the instructions for filling it out constitute a toolkit for statistical observation. The choice of the place of inspection of the survey depends mainly on the purpose of the observation. The choice of observation time consists in solving 2 questions: establishing a critical moment (date) or time interval determining the period (period) of observation Critical moment - a specific day of the year, hour of the day, as of which the registration of signs for each unit of the studied population should be . The term (period) of observation is the time during which statistical forms are filled out. In domestic statistics, 3 organized forms of statistical observation are used: reporting (i.e., the main form of statistical observation, with the help of which statistical authorities receive the necessary data from enterprises, institutions and organizations within a certain period of time in the form of reporting documents established by law, signed by persons responsible for their provision and the reliability of the information collected) Specially organized statistical observation (census, one-time counts, surveys of a continuous and non-continuous nature) registers (i.e. a form of continuous statistical observation of long-term processes that have a fixed beginning, stage of development and a fixed end) . Methods of statistical observation: 1. direct, i.e. such observation, in which the registers themselves, by direct measurement, establish the fact to be registered, and on their basis make entries in the observation form 2.documentary 3.survey (distinguish between oral, self-registration, correspondent, questionnaire, private). Types of statistical observation: Statistical observation can be divided into groups according to the following criteria: time of registration of facts (continuous, periodic, one-time) coverage of population units (continuous, i.e. obtaining information about all units of the population under study, and non-continuous). There are several types of non-continuous observation, one of which is selective, i.e. which can give fairly accurate results. The method of the main array (a kind of non-continuous observation) examines the largest units of the studied population, which, according to the main feature, have the largest share in the population. Monographic surveys are a type of continuous observation in which individual units of the studied population are subjected to careful study. The accuracy of statistical observation is the degree to which the value of any indicator, determined from the materials of statistical observation, corresponds to its actual value. The discrepancies between the calculated and actual values of the studied quantities are called the observation error. There are registration errors (which, in turn, are random and systematic) and representativeness errors.
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1 STATISTICAL OBSERVATION its types and methods of conducting
Statistical observation - Statistical observation
massive, systematic be carried out on scientific basis according to predetermined plan and program.
Statistical reporting
. on time of registration of fats.
By continuous ( complete) observation discontinuous observation
Selective
Observation of the main array
For monographic observation
By time of registration of facts Discontinuous Nepre continuous (current) observation
Discontinuous observation neperiodic observation Single observation
ways to get statistical information
Documentary observation
Direct observation
Survey
development of a statistical hypothesis,
statistical observation,
summary and grouping of statistical data,
data analysis,
data interpretation.
stat. observation- This is the initial stage of the economic stat. obs. It is a scientific and organizational work to collect massive primary data on phenomena and processes. public life.
Any stat. obs. is carried out with the help of evaluation and registration of signs of population units in the relevant accounting documents. Thus, the data obtained are facts that in one way or another characterize the phenomena of social life.
stat. obs. must meet the following requirements.
1. Obs. phenomena must have scientific and practical value, express certain socio-economic types of phenomena.
2. The direct collection of mass data should ensure the completeness of the facts related to the issue under consideration, since phenomena are in constant change and development. In the absence of complete data, the analysis and conclusions may be erroneous.
3. To ensure the reliability of stat. data requires a thorough comprehensive check of the quality of the collected facts.
4. In order to create the best conditions for obtaining objective materials, a scientific organization of statistics is necessary. observations.
stat. obs. takes place in two forms: by providing reports and conducting specially organized statistical observations.
reporting call such an organized form of statistical observation. in which information is received in the form of mandatory reports within a certain time frame and according to approved forms.
In this case, the source of information, as a rule, is the primary accounts in the documents of accounting and operational accounting.
Specially organized stat. obs. is the collection of information through censuses, one-time records and surveys. An example of a specially organized stat. obs. may be: a population census, all kinds of sociological surveys.
Types of stat. obs. differ in the time of data registration and in the degree of coverage of units of the study population.
Obs. continuous and discontinuous. The latter, in turn, is subdivided into obs. periodic and one-time.
continuous is such obl. which is carried out systematically. At the same time, the registration of facts is carried out as they are completed, for example, registration of acts of civil status. At the current observ. a significant gap between the moment of occurrence of the fact and the moment of its registration should not be allowed.
Discontinuous is such obl. which repeats at regular intervals.
lump sum obs. carried out as needed, from time to time, without observing strict periodicity, or generally carried out once.
By degree of coverage units of the studied population distinguish between continuous and non-continuous stat. obs.
continuous is called such obl. in which all units of the studied population are subjected to examination without exception. By continuous obl. receiving reports from enterprises and institutions.
discontinuous is called such obl. in which not all units of the studied population are subjected to survey, but only a predetermined part of them, for example, the study of trade turnover and prices in urban markets. The main type of discontinuous observ. is selective
1 F Forms, types and methods of statistical observation.
Statistical observation - the first stage of statistical research, which is a scientifically organized collection of massive data on the studied phenomena and processes of social life. Statistical observation - this is a mass systematic, scientifically organized observation of the phenomena of social and economic life, which consists in registering the displayed signs for each unit of the population.
Statistical observation can be carried out by state statistics bodies, research institutes, economic services of banks, stock exchanges, firms. It must definitely be massive, systematic be carried out on scientific basis according to predetermined plan and program.
Forms of statistical observation are reporting and specially organized observations.
Statistical reporting is the main form of statis. observation, with the help of which statis. bodies within a certain period of time receive from enterprises, institutions, organizations the necessary data in the form of legally established reporting documents, signed by the persons responsible for their provision and the reliability of the information collected.
Specially organized statistical observation is the collection of information through censuses, one-time records and surveys (for example, a population census, sociological surveys, censuses of industrial equipment, raw materials and materials residues). In order to obtain information about the level of consumer spending and incomes of the population, a reporting network of statistics on the family budgets of workers, employees and peasants was organized.
Registration form of supervision. Register observation - it is a form of continuous extras. observations of long-term processes that have a fixed beginning, a stage of development and a fixed end. It is based on the introduction of a statistical register. The register is a system that constantly monitors the state of the unit of observation and evaluates the strength of the influence of various factors on the studied indicators.
Types of statistical observation . Statistical observations can be divided into groups: 1) by coverage of population units; 2) on time of registration of fats.
Bythe degree of coverage of the study population Statistical observation is divided into two types: continuous and non-continuous. At continuous ( complete) observation all units of the studied population are covered. Continuous observation provides completeness of information about the studied phenomena and processes. At discontinuous observation only a certain part of the studied population is covered, while it is important to determine in advance which part of the studied population will be subjected to observation and what criterion will be used as the basis for sampling. There are several types of non-continuous observation: selective, observation of the main array, monographic.
Selective called the observation of a part of the units of the study population, selected by random selection. With the right organization, selective observation gives sufficiently accurate results that can be applied with a certain probability to the entire population.
Observation of the main array covers a survey of certain, the most significant in terms of significance of the studied characteristics of the units of the population.
For monographic observation characteristic is a comprehensive and in-depth study of only individual units of the population that have some special characteristics or represent some new phenomenon. The purpose of such observation is to identify existing or only emerging trends in the development of a given process or phenomenon.
By time of registration of facts observation can be continuous and discontinuous. Discontinuous in turn includes periodic and one-time. Nepre continuous (current) observation It is carried out by continuous recording of facts as they arise. For example, the registration of deaths, births, marriages by civil registry offices (ZAGS) is continuously conducted.
Discontinuous observation carried out either regularly, at certain intervals (periodic observation), or irregularly, once, as needed (one-time observation). An example neperiodic observation may be a population census, which is carried out at sufficiently long intervals, and all forms of statistical observations that are monthly, quarterly, semi-annual, annual, etc. character. Single observation It is characteristic that facts are recorded not in connection with their occurrence, but according to their state or presence at a certain moment or over a period of time.
Along with the types of statistical observation, the general theory of statistics considers ways to get statistical information the most important of which are the documentary method of observation, the method of direct observation, and the survey.
Documentary observation is based on the use of data from various documents as a source of information, for example, accounting registers. Considering that, as a rule, high requirements are imposed on filling out such documents, the data reflected in them are of the most reliable nature and can serve as a high-quality source material for analysis.
Direct observation is carried out by registering the facts personally established by the registrars as a result of inspection, measurement, counting the signs of the phenomenon under study. In this way, prices for goods and services are recorded, measurements of working time, inventory of stock balances, etc. are made.
Survey is based on obtaining data from respondents (survey participants). The survey is used in cases where observation by other methods cannot be carried out. This type of observation is typical for conducting various sociological surveys and public opinion polls. Statistical information can be obtained by different types of surveys: expeditionary, correspondent, questionnaire, private.
V modern society economic management would be impossible without such important science like statistics. This discipline has played the role of a necessary and effective tool in any state for many centuries. Moreover, the level and stage did not matter. economic development country.
The data that is collected by statistics is still widely used by authorities government controlled, as they indicate the quantitative side of the mass phenomena that exist in society.
Definition of the term
The word "statistics" has many meanings and many faces. To date, there are about a thousand different explanations of this term. To define such a science as statistics, tried not only philosophers, but also economists, mathematicians, statesmen and sociologists.
The very word denoting this discipline comes from the Latin "status". In translation, it means "a certain state of affairs." However, today the term "statistics" can be used in the most different meanings. This:
Practical activities carried out for the collection, further processing and analysis of those data that characterize culture and the economy, population and education, as well as many other phenomena of public life;
Academic discipline included in the plans for the training of managers, businessmen and top-level economists;
A science that studies the quantitative aspects of various spheres of state life.
The history of the emergence of the discipline and its development
The origin of statistics occurred in ancient times. Even then, people needed to calculate the population, property, land, livestock, etc.
The earliest information about such works dates back to the 5th century BC. e. They were held in China. Accounting for free citizens by age and sex was carried out in Ancient Rome. In the ancient world, all born babies were included in special lists. A separate record of young men of military age was kept. Land lists were compiled, including data on buildings and slaves, inventory and income.
In 1061 the first general census was taken in England. To collect data, two hundred and forty thousand households were surveyed. There is information about the census in the 13th century. Mongol khans. They needed the data to collect taxes from the occupied Russian territories.
In subsequent centuries, statistics continued its development in the 17th century. found its expression in the scientific discipline. It was based on two schools. The first of these is English, which uses political arithmetic. The second school is German, which dealt more with the description of phenomena. At the beginning of the 19th century science acquired its third direction - statistical and mathematical, which was proposed by the Belgian researcher Adolf Quetelet.
At the beginning of the 20th century this discipline began to use the theory of probability. Its methods made it possible to conduct sociological studies of consumer demand and product quality, as well as the standard of living of citizens.
Active statistical observations were carried out during the years of Soviet power. They made it possible to see the whole picture of the nascent national economy of the country. The work of statistics did not stop during the war with Nazi Germany. During this period, the need arose for the country to calculate material and labor resources. In addition, information about the transfer of production forces to the eastern regions acquired particular importance.
Active work of statistics was carried out in the post-war period, and it continues today. Without this science it will be impossible further development national economy of the state and all its social spheres.
Organization of the data acquisition system
The components of statistics are:
Institutions of state and municipal statistics;
Unofficial and private statistics;
Departmental reporting.
The organization of statistical observation begins with departments and district departments. Their work is controlled by the statistical committees of the subjects of the federation. They, in turn, are subordinate to the State Statistics Committee of Russia.
Departmental reporting is compiled by enterprises and organizations of a certain field of activity. For example, statistics of banks, customs, etc.
Research Product
Federal statistical observation includes:
Macroeconomic indicators;
Industry data;
Statistics of the standard of living and social sphere;
International and interregional comparisons.
Individual units of the population may also be subject to survey. In this case, the statistical observation will be discontinuous. In turn, it is divided into the following subspecies:
A sample, which is a selection of a part of the studied population (an example would be a public opinion poll);
The main array, when that part of the population units is examined, whose contribution to the event under study is the largest (for example, the study of the features of urbanization in million-plus cities);
A monographic survey where only one unit of the population is observed in detail (for example, a family during a pre-budget study).
What kind of observation is more preferable? Both continuous and non-continuous surveys have their advantages and disadvantages. They should be taken into account when choosing a statistical method.
So, total observation:
Due to the coverage of all units of the population, it provides the most accurate data;
Takes a significant amount of time and requires more funding;
It is not always able to cover all the elements of a given set;
It is characterized by the duration of processing the results obtained, which may affect the relevance of the conclusions.
As for non-continuous observation, it is:
The danger is that the part being studied will not accurately represent the whole population;
It is capable of missing certain significant features, which will entail errors in statistical observation.
Control of received information
Sometimes in the studied data there are some discrepancies between the actual and calculated values of the studied quantities. These may be errors:
- Registrations. These are inaccuracies in information about the observed object (in most cases they are canceled). For example, a mistake in the preparation of documents in the registry office.
- Representativeness. These errors occur when, during a continuous survey, a part was taken that poorly represents the whole.
- Random. These are errors that occurred under the influence of fatigue, inattention and other factors. For example, an invalid accounting entry.
- Systematic. Such errors lead to underestimation or overestimation of the studied indicators. For example, rounding off a value that ends in 0 or 5.
Two methods are used to control errors in statistics. The first one is logical. It involves the use of a chain of qualitative relationships. For example, a child of 8 years old cannot have their own children.
It is used in statistics and arithmetic control of indicators. It uses a quantitative relationship between values. For example: column 4 = column 3 - column 1 + column 2.
STATISTICAL OBSERVATION, ITS TYPES AND FORMS
Statistical research begins with the collection of statistical information characterizing the studied socio-economic phenomena and processes. This stage is called statistical observation.
Statistical observation- this is a mass, systematic, scientifically organized observation of socio-economic phenomena and processes, which consists in registering the necessary features for each unit of the studied population. For example, during the census, for each resident of the country, information about gender, age, marital status, education, etc. is recorded.
Statistical observation, as a rule, is massive. This is manifested in the fact that during the observation it is necessary to obtain data from the maximum possible number of studied units of the population. The mass coverage of the population makes it possible to obtain the most accurate data characterizing the socio-economic phenomenon under study, to identify the existing patterns and relationships.
The regularity of statistical observation lies in the fact that any study is carried out according to a predetermined plan, which includes a number of issues related to preparatory work, direct collection of the necessary information and processing of the data obtained.
Today in statistics there are the following forms of statistical observation: reporting , specially organized statistical observation, registers.
Reporting- a way to obtain statistical information from legal entities.
Reporting is a specially designed form that includes those features that are subject to registration. Forms of statistical reporting are developed and approved by the state statistics authorities of the Russian Federation. Any legal entity that is a subject of the Russian economy is obliged to submit reports to the state statistics authorities at the place of its registration in accordance with the established reporting forms and within the established time limits.
During the formation of a market economy, a special place in the system of collecting statistical information began to be occupied by specially organized statistical observations which are carried out to obtain any data not contained in the reports provided or which are necessary to verify or clarify the data contained in the reports.
Special attention should be paid to such a type of specially organized observation as a census.
Census- these are specially carried out large-scale work to collect the necessary statistical information about the objects under study within the boundaries of an industry, region or country as a whole. For example, population censuses, which are held approximately once every 10 years and are aimed at obtaining the necessary information about the country's population. Statistical bodies also conduct censuses perennial plantations, housing stock, construction in progress, etc.
In addition to censuses, specially organized observation also includes other one-time work to collect the necessary statistical information, in particular, in the framework of sociological or marketing research.
Register supervision is a constant monitoring of the state and development of the observed units, which consists in the initial placement and timely updating of information in the database being maintained. In the statistical practice of a number of countries, population registers are used, i.e. constantly updated lists of the country's residents indicating their main socio-demographic characteristics, as well as business registers containing information of an organizational, legal and economic nature.
The general classification of types of statistical observation is shown in Figure 4.1.
Rice. 4.1. Types of statistical observation
By coverage of population units There are two types of observation: continuous and non-continuous.
With total observation all units of the studied population are subjected to the survey. At the same time, due to the action of a number of factors, an insignificant percentage of non-coverage of units of the studied population is possible. Population censuses can serve as an example of continuous observation.
With poor observation only a part of the units of the studied population is subjected to the survey. In this case, the part covered by the observation is determined in advance, i.e. a failed continuous observation cannot be regarded as a non-continuous observation.
It is customary to distinguish the following types of non-continuous statistical observation: selective, main array method, monographic survey.
Selective called an observation based on the principle of random selection of those units of the population under study that should be observed. Selective observation, with its proper organization and conduct, provides sufficiently reliable data to characterize the population under study as a whole. In many cases, it is quite possible to replace continuous accounting with them. This provides significant savings in the funds spent on the collection and processing of data.
Monographic survey is a detailed, in-depth study and description of individual units of the population, characteristic in any respect, as a rule, according to an expanded program. A monographic study is carried out in order to identify existing or emerging trends in the development of the phenomenon, to identify available reserves, to evaluate the results of economic experiments.
Main Array Method consists in the fact that the largest units are subjected to the survey, which, taken together, have a predominant share in the aggregate according to the main feature for this study. For example, in a number of industries, large and medium-sized enterprises account for the vast majority of output, so the results of small enterprises in these industries are practically not reflected in the general statistical indicators.
By registration deadlines observation can be continuous (current) and discontinuous.
continuous called such observation, which is carried out constantly, and the registration of facts is carried out as they are accomplished. So, for example, registration of births, marriages, etc. is carried out. in the registry office.
Discontinuous observation is not carried out constantly, from time to time. In this case, discontinuous observation is of two types: periodic and one-time. Periodic is an observation that is repeated at regular, equal intervals of time. An example is the annual reporting to the state statistics authorities.
A one-time observation is such an observation that is carried out as needed without observing strict periodicity, or is generally carried out once and is not repeated any more. Such an observation was the census of perennial plantations conducted in the last century.
By source of information Distinguish between direct observation, documentary observation and questioning.
direct called such an observation, in which the registrars themselves, by direct measurement, weighing or counting, establish the value of the attribute and, on this basis, make an entry in the observation form. In this way, an inventory of fixed assets in enterprises is carried out.
Documentary observation involves recording answers to the questions of the form on the basis of relevant documents. An example of such observation is the collection of data on the progress of university students based on test and examination sheets, filling out statistical reporting forms based on the data accounting etc.
Survey- this is an observation in which the answers to the questions of the form are recorded from the words of the respondent (respondent). In this way, population censuses and public opinion polls are conducted.
The statistics apply the following ways collection of information: reporting, forwarding, self-calculation, questionnaire, correspondent.
Essence reporting method consists, as noted above, in the mandatory submission by economic entities of statistical reports on their activities in the prescribed form and within the established time limits.
Expeditionary method observation consists in the fact that specially attracted and trained workers visit each observation unit and fill out the observation form themselves. In this way, information is collected during population censuses.
With the method self-calculation The forms are filled in by the respondents themselves. The duty of the employees specially involved in obtaining information is to distribute the forms to the respondents, instruct them, collect the completed forms and check the correctness of their filling.
Questionnaire method- this is the collection of statistical data using special questionnaires sent to a certain circle of people or published in the periodical press. As a rule, this method of obtaining information is also used by many large manufacturers when conducting sociological surveys. household appliances, furniture and other consumer goods. Questionnaires are enclosed in the packaging of the goods with a request to fill out and return to the manufacturer at the specified address.
Essence correspondent way observation lies in the fact that the statistical authorities agree with certain persons who undertake to monitor any phenomena, processes and report the results of observations to the statistical authorities in a timely manner. In this way, the budgets of individual households are studied, the purpose of which is to obtain statistical information on the income and expenditures of the population.
As noted above, regularity is the basis of statistical observation, so its implementation should be based on a detailed plan.
The statistical observation plan consists of two parts, the first one includes program and methodological issues, and the second one - organizational issues.
The program and methodological part of the plan includes:
– determination of the object of observation;
– determination of the unit of the object of observation;
- drawing up a program of static observation;
- drawing up a program for the development of observation materials;
– design of the observation form;
- determination of the time of statistical observation and its critical moment;
- drafting instructions.
When planning a statistical observation, it is necessary, first of all, to determine its object and unit.
Object of statistical observations is called the population about which should be collected necessary information. The objects of observation can be, for example, commercial banks, agricultural producers, industrial enterprises, students, the population, etc.
Unit of observation called a constituent element of the object of observation, which is the carrier of signs to be registered. The unit of observation can be a person, a farm, a commercial bank.
Observation program- this is a list of features to be recorded during statistical observation. The monitoring program has a number of requirements that it must satisfy, namely:
a) the program should include only essential features that characterize the object under study;
b) the program should not include minor issues that may complicate the work of collecting information, and in the future - its processing and analysis;
c) when developing a program, it is necessary to strive for the completeness of the information collected;
d) the observation program should include only such questions that can really be answered objectively and with sufficient accuracy;
e) the program should sometimes include questions of a control nature that serve the purpose of verifying and clarifying the information collected.
Program questions can be supplemented with a statistical prompt, i.e., answer options. The hint can be closed or open. A closed prompt implies a series of answers from which the respondent must choose one or more. With an open prompt, the respondent can choose one or more answers from the proposed list or formulate his own answer in a specially marked field of the form.
When planning a survey, as a rule, they make up and collected materials development program, which specifies the tasks of statistical observation, shows what data must be collected and in what form the results of their processing should be presented.
To record answers to the questions of the program, a form observations. The observation form is developed specifically for recording answers to program questions and is a specially divided sheet (sheets) of paper that contains a list of program questions, free spaces for recording answers to them, as well as for recording ciphers (codes) of answers. Special attention when developing the form, attention should be paid to the wording of the questions. They should be formulated concisely and clearly, should not cause discrepancies. In addition to the questions of the program, the form includes a title and address parts. The title part contains the name of the statistical observation, indicates the name of the body conducting the observation, by whom and when this form was approved, sometimes the number assigned to it in the general system of observation forms carried out by this statistical body. The address part provides for recording the exact address of a unit or a set of observation units and a number of other information.
However, no matter how clearly the form is drawn up, it is usually drawn up instruction, which includes a set of explanations and instructions, mainly on the program of statistical observation. Instructions may be presented as a separate document (often a brochure) or set out on an observation form. The instruction should be written briefly, simply, explanations and instructions should be clear and precise.
When organizing statistical observation, it is necessary to resolve the issue of the timing of the this observation, including the choice of the season, the establishment of the term (period) of observation, and in some cases the so-called critical moment.
Observation period- this is the time during which the registration of signs in units of observation according to the established program is carried out. The duration of the observation period depends on many factors, among which are the size and condition of the object of observation, the volume and complexity of the observation program.
For the most mobile objects of study, such as the population, for example, a critical moment of statistical observation is established. critical moment the point in time at which the collected information is recorded is called. In practice, the critical moment is assigned to the beginning of the observation period.
In order to successfully conduct the observation, organizational issues of the statistical observation plan are developed, which are fixed in organizational plan.
The organizational plan involves the following issues:
- the object of observation (its definition, description is given, distinctive features are indicated);
– goals and objectives of observation;
- the monitoring body that prepares and conducts the monitoring;
- place and timing of observation;
– preparatory work to observation, including the selection and training of personnel, compiling lists of units of the population under study, in some cases these works include an advertising campaign of ongoing observation, etc.;
- the procedure for conducting the observation;
- the procedure for receiving and handing over observation materials and presenting preliminary and final results of observation;
– financing and logistical support of works.
You should also pay attention to accuracy of statistical observation. Accuracy in statistics is understood as the degree of correspondence between the data obtained as a result of statistical observation and their real values. The resulting discrepancies between the data of statistical observation and the actual values of the attribute are called errors. Errors are defined as the difference or ratio between these values. As a rule, errors occur during registration and during measurement. It should be noted that observational errors are the most dangerous, since they are quite difficult to correct, and they have a huge impact on further calculations.
In statistics, registration errors and representativeness errors are distinguished.
Registration errors arise as a result of incorrect ascertainment of facts in the process of observation, or erroneous recording of them, or both. Registration errors can occur both during continuous and non-continuous observation. With incomplete observation, so-called representativeness errors, or, as they are also called, representativeness errors. They lie in the fact that the values of features for the selected sampling frame do not reflect the real picture.
Depending on the nature, observation errors are random and systematic.
Random errors occur randomly as a result of typos, misprints, omissions, etc. For example, when registering, the registrar wrote "July 15" instead of "June 15" when recording the date of birth. With a sufficiently large number of observations due to the action of the law big numbers these errors more or less cancel each other out.
Systematic errors are the most dangerous because they act in only one direction and lead to severe distortion of the data. The most revealing systematic error is the error in the population census, which consists in the fact that the population tends to round its age by numbers ending in 5 or 0. The same type of error can include the concealment of the real size of the financial results of production and economic activities carried out by economic entities, the desire of respondents to indicate an underestimated value of their age, etc.
In order to detect errors, the received materials are checked. For this purpose, after the observation collected material check for the completeness of coverage of the object by observation and for the quality of filling out forms and other observation documents. In the latter case, two types of control are used: logical and arithmetic.
When controlling the completeness of coverage of the object of observation, it is established whether data are received from all units of the population subject to observation. If incomplete coverage of the object by observation is revealed, next steps depends on whether it is possible to fill gaps or not.
Logic control consists in comparing the answers to the questions of the observation form and finding out their logical compatibility. If incompatible answers are found, they try by further comparisons with answers to other questions or in some other way to establish which of the answers is incorrect.
Arithmetic control consists in checking various calculations, the results of which are carried out in the observation form, in particular, totals, percentage calculations, calculations of averages, etc.
Control tasks
1. What is the essence of statistical observation?
2. Name the types and methods of statistical observation.
3. Accuracy of statistical observation. Observation errors and their causes.
4. Specify which forms, types and methods of statistical observation should include:
a) registration of acts of civil status (births, marriages, divorces, deaths);
b) daily entries in the forms of income and expenditure during the survey of household budgets;
c) accounting of commodity balances in the trade and warehouse network at the beginning of each quarter;
d) monthly reports on the output of industrial and trade enterprises.
5. Develop a draft plan for a statistical survey of your place of work (study), etc.:
a) determine the purpose, object and unit of observation;
b) draw up an observation program;
c) develop an observation form and instructions for it;
d) draw up an organizational plan for observation.
To study socio-economic phenomena and processes of social life, one should first of all collect the necessary information about them - statistical data. Statistical data (information) is understood as a set of quantitative characteristics of socio-economic phenomena and processes obtained as a result of statistical observation, their processing or corresponding calculations.
Statistical information is necessary for both government authorities and private entrepreneurs. Thus, data on the economic situation in the country, on the existing purchasing power of the population, its composition and size, the profitability of enterprises in various sectors of the national economy, the dynamics of unemployment, changes in price indices for certain goods are needed by public services to improve the system of taxation of enterprises and individuals, to make changes in customs and investment policy, development of measures for social protection of various segments of the population. The same information is also required by private entrepreneurs for planning and organizing production.
The main properties of statistical information are its mass character and stability. The first feature is related to the peculiarities of the subject of statistics as a science, and the second one says that once collected information remains unchanged and, therefore, has the ability to become obsolete. Therefore, the conclusions about the state and development of the phenomenon, made on the basis of the analysis of information obtained several years ago, may be incomplete and even incorrect.
An important part of any statistical study is statistical observation.
Statistical observation is a mass, systematic, scientifically organized observation of the phenomena of social and economic life, which consists in registering selected features for each unit of the population.
An example of statistical observation is public opinion polls, which have become especially popular in Russia in recent years. Such observation is undertaken with the aim of revealing people's attitudes towards some issue of interest or controversial events. The study of public opinion is the basis common system market research and is its important integral part. Such observation requires interviewing a number of individuals according to a predetermined program.
Statistical observation can be carried out by state statistics bodies, research institutes, economic services of banks, stock exchanges, firms.
The process of statistical observation includes next steps: preparation of observation; conducting mass data collection; preparation of data for automated processing; development of proposals for the improvement of statistical observation.
Any statistical observation requires careful, thoughtful preparation. The reliability and reliability of information, the timeliness of its receipt will largely depend on it.
The preparation of a statistical observation is a process that includes different types works. First, it is necessary to solve methodological issues, the most important of which are the definition of the purpose and object of observation, the composition of signs to be registered; development of documents for data collection; the choice of the reporting unit and the unit to be observed, as well as the methods and means of obtaining data.
In addition to methodological issues, it is necessary to solve organizational problems, for example, to determine the composition of the monitoring bodies; select and train personnel for monitoring; draw up a calendar plan of work for the preparation, conduct and processing of observation materials; replicate documents for data collection.
Carrying out mass data collection includes work directly related to filling in statistical forms. It begins with the distribution of census sheets, questionnaires, forms, statistical reporting forms and ends with their delivery after filling in to the bodies conducting the observation.
The collected data at the stage of their preparation for automated processing are subject to arithmetic and logical control. Both of these controls are based on knowledge of the relationship between indicators and qualitative features. On the final stage During the observation, the reasons that led to the incorrect filling of statistical forms are analyzed, and proposals are developed to improve the observation. This is very important for organizing future surveys.
Obtaining information in the course of statistical observation requires a lot of financial and labor resources, as well as time.
Purpose of observation. Statistical observations most often pursue a practical goal - obtaining reliable information to identify patterns in the development of phenomena and processes. For example, the purpose of the 1994 Russian micro-census was to obtain data on the size, composition of the population, and living conditions.
Observation task predetermines its program and forms of organization. An unclear goal can lead to the fact that in the process of observation unnecessary data will be collected or, conversely, the information necessary for analysis will not be obtained.
Object and unit of observation. Reporting unit. When preparing an observation, in addition to the goal, it is necessary to determine exactly what exactly is to be examined, that is, to establish the object of observation.
Under the object Observation refers to a certain statistical totality in which the studied socio-economic phenomena and processes occur. The object of observation can be a set individuals(population of a particular region, country; persons employed in enterprises of the industry), physical units (machines, machines, residential buildings), legal entities(enterprises, farms, commercial banks, educational institutions).
To determine the object of statistical observation, it is necessary to establish the boundaries of the studied population. To do this, you should specify the most important features that distinguish it from other similar objects. For example, before conducting a cost-benefit survey industrial enterprises, it is necessary to determine the forms of ownership, organizational and legal forms of enterprises, industries and regions to be monitored.
In statistics, the unit of observation (in foreign literature the term “elementary unit” is used) is a constituent element of an object that is a carrier of features subject to registration. For example, in demographic surveys, the unit of observation may be an individual, but it may also be a family; in budgetary surveys – family or household.
The unit of observation should be distinguished from the reporting unit. The reporting unit is the subject from which data about the unit of observation are received. So, when organizing statistical observation in capital construction, information can be obtained from projects or projects. contractors or from developers.
The unit of observation and the reporting unit may be the same. For example, if it is necessary to determine the volume of capital investments disbursed during the year, then the developer will be both the unit of observation and the reporting organization. However, when studying the process of concentration of capital investments, the reporting unit will still be the developer, and the unit of observation will be the construction sites and objects, the construction of which is carried out by this developer.
The basis of all natural science is observation and experiment. So, from the above, we can say the following:
Observation - this is a systematic, purposeful perception of an object or phenomenon without affecting the object or phenomenon being studied. Observation allows you to obtain initial information on the object or phenomenon under study.
Experiment - method of studying an object, when the researcher actively and purposefully influences it by creating artificial conditions or using natural conditions necessary to identify the relevant properties. The advantages of an experiment in comparison with the observation of a real phenomenon or object are:
1. Possibility of studying in “ pure form”, without the influence of side factors obscuring the main process;
2. Under experimental conditions, you can get the result more quickly and accurately;
3. During the experiment, you can test as many times as necessary.
The result of an experiment or measurement always contains some error. If the error is small, then it can be neglected. However, two questions inevitably arise:—
first, what is meant by a small error, and, in—
second, how to estimate the magnitude of the error. That is, the results of the experiment also need a certain theoretical understanding.
The accuracy of statistical observation is the degree of correspondence between the value of any indicator (the value of any attribute), determined from the materials of statistical observation, and its actual value.
The discrepancy between the calculated and actual values of the studied quantities is called the error of observation.
Data accuracy is a basic requirement for statistical observation. In order to avoid observation errors, to prevent, identify and correct their occurrence, it is necessary to: ensure high-quality training of the personnel who will conduct the observation; organize special partial or continuous control checks of the correctness of filling in statistical forms; carry out logical and arithmetic control of the received data after the end of the collection of information.
2. TYPES AND FORMS OF STATISTICAL OBSERVATION
In domestic statistics, three forms of statistical observations are used.
statistical reporting of enterprises, organizations, institutions.
specially organized statistical observation (census, etc.)
register - a form of continuous statistical monitoring of long-term processes
Statistical observation is classified:
By observation time:
current observation - continuous registration of signs is carried out (registry office, crime, etc.).
periodic observation - is carried out at certain intervals of time (standard of living in the city of Chelyabinsk, the cost of the consumer basket, population census).
one-time - an observation made once for a specific purpose.
By coverage of population units:
Continuous observation - information on all ECCs must be obtained
Not a complete observation
The method of the main array - the most significant units of the studied population are examined (to study the engineering enterprise of the Chelyabinsk region).
Selective observation is a random selection of ECCs to be observed.
Monographic observation - when one ECC is observed, they are often used to draw up a mass observation program.
By way of data collection:
Direct observation - the registrars themselves, by direct measurement, weighing, establish the fact of the subject to be registered (a child under the age of 1 year in a polyclinic).
Documentary observation - various documents are used (drawing up a declaration)
Poll - the necessary information is obtained from the words of the respondent.
Forwarding survey - carried out by specially trained employees who receive the necessary information on the basis of a survey of relevant persons and record the answers themselves in the form. Expeditionary survey can be direct (face to face) and indirect (survey by phone)
Correspondent survey - information is provided by a staff of voluntary correspondents, this method requires small financial costs, but does not give the exact value of the observation.
Self-registration - the forms are filled in by the respondents themselves, and the registrars only distribute the forms to them questionnaires and explain how to fill them out.
Statistical observations can be divided into groups according to the following criteria:
time of registration of facts;
coverage of population units.
According to the time of registration of facts, there is a continuous (current), periodic and one-time observation. In the current observation, changes in relation to the phenomena under study are recorded as they occur, for example, when registering births, deaths, marital status. Such an observation is carried out in order to study the dynamics of a phenomenon.
Data reflecting site changes can be collected through multiple surveys. They are usually carried out according to a similar program and tools and are called periodic. This type of observation includes population censuses, which are conducted every 10 years, the registration of producer prices for individual goods, which is currently carried out monthly.
A one-time survey provides information about the quantitative characteristics of a phenomenon or process at the time of its study. Re-registration is carried out after some time (undefined in advance) or may not be carried out at all. A one-time survey was an inventory of unfinished industrial construction in 1990.
According to the coverage of population units, statistical observation can be continuous and non-continuous. The task of continuous observation is to obtain information about all units of the studied population.
Until recently, the Russian system of state statistics relied primarily on continuous observation. However, this type of observation has serious drawbacks: the high cost of obtaining and processing the entire amount of information; high labor costs; insufficient efficiency of information, since it takes a lot of time to collect and process it. And finally, no continuous observation, as a rule, provides complete coverage of all units of the population without exception. A greater or lesser number of units necessarily remain out of observation, both when conducting one-time surveys, and in such a form of observation as reporting. For example, at present, a significant part of non-state sector enterprises do not provide the necessary information to state statistical authorities, even despite the adopted RF Law “On liability for violation of the procedure for submitting state statistical reporting”.
The number and proportion of units not covered depend on many factors: the type of survey (by mail, via oral questioning); type of reporting unit; registrar qualifications; the content of the questions provided for by the observation program; the time of the day or year when the survey is conducted, etc.
Discontinuous observation initially assumes that only a part of the units of the studied population is subject to examination. When conducting it, it should be determined in advance which part of the population should be subjected to observation and how the units to be surveyed should be selected.
One of the advantages of non-continuous observations is the possibility of obtaining information in a shorter time and with less resources than with continuous observation. This is due to the smaller amount of information collected, and consequently, with lower costs for its receipt, verification of reliability, processing, analysis.
There are several types of non-continuous observation. One of them is selective observation. This is a fairly common type, based on the principle of random selection of those units of the population under study that should be observed. With the right organization, selective observation gives fairly accurate results that are quite suitable for characterizing the entire population under study. This is the advantage of selective observation in comparison with other types of non-continuous observation.
The size of the sample depends on the nature (character) of the socio-economic phenomenon under study. The sample population should represent all types of units present in the population under study. Otherwise, the sample population will not accurately reproduce the proportions and dependencies characteristic of the population in its entirety.
A variation of sample observation is the method of momentary observations. Its essence lies in the fact that information is collected by registering the values of features in units of the sample population at some predetermined points in time. Therefore, the method of momentary observations involves the selection of not only units of the population under study (sampling in space), but also the points in time at which the state of the object under study is recorded - sampling in time).
This type of observation is used in conducting income surveys.
The next kind of non-continuous observation is the main array method. With it, the most significant, usually the largest units of the population under study are examined, which, according to the main (for a particular study) feature, have the largest share in the population. It is this type that is used to organize the monitoring of the work of urban markets.
A monographic survey is a type of non-continuous observation in which individual units of the studied population, usually representatives of some new types of phenomena, are subjected to a thorough examination. It is carried out in order to identify existing or emerging trends in the development of this phenomenon.
A monographic survey, limiting itself to individual units of observation, studies them with a high degree of detail, which cannot be achieved with a complete or even selective survey. A detailed statistical-monographic study of one plant, farm, family budget, etc., makes it possible to catch those proportions and connections that escape from the field of view during mass observations.
